CP Update: Wheat

India’s wheat crop is expected to be much lower than 93.6 million tonnes forecast by the Agriculture Ministry in its third advanced estimates for 2012-13. This is seen to be borne out by the current market arrivals and official procurement trends, which are significantly lower than their corresponding last year levels. Trade sources expect the crop to be in the 

range of 80-84 million tonnes as market arrivals have thinned down across mandies in Northern States – mainly due to a lower crop and possibly due to farmers holding back their produce anticipating better prices. “The wheat crop could be lower by about 15 to 20 per cent over last year’s 94.88 million tonnes,” said Adi Narayan Gupta, President of Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India. He attributed the decline in crop to the extended cold wave conditions and erratic rains in the key growing regions of Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during February and March. The prolonged cold wave conditions triggered by Western disturbance had also affected the quality and the yields.

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